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The Poker Shrink, Vol. 56: The Just-noticeable Difference

Posted by admin | News | Tuesday 21 April 2009 3:31 am

There is a concept in psychology called the Difference Threshold, which is commonly referred to as the “just-noticeable difference”. Technically, psychologists define these as a change in any form of stimulation that a person will notice at least fifty percent of the time. For example, you are asked to hold a cup that has water in it. You close your eyes and as more water is added (without any sound), you say when you notice an increase in weight. Obviously, the weight of a single drop of water will not be noticed, but filling the cup half full will at some point trigger the difference threshold.

The just-noticeable difference can be used to measure the increase in any stimulus: light, sound, weight, heat, cold… and even poker tells.
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It might be obvious that if someone is giving off a subtle tell — perhaps a nervous twitch — that the bigger or more frequent the tell, the more likely it is to be read by an opponent. On the other hand, the more attentive you are to subtle clues and tells the more likely you are to pick them up, while the other players at the table might miss them. These are good examples of the just-noticeable difference.

Here is an example I was shown by a professional poker player. He told me to watch a certain player at his table. Whenever that player made a big bet, he would sit back in his chair. The further back he sat the more confident he was in his hand. If he sat fully forward leaning towards the table, he was bluffing. Mid-way meant he was on a draw with some outs. All the way back in his chair and he held a monster. It had taken the pro a couple of hours to get this information and correctly assign the right read. He was operating by observing a just-noticeable difference in the player’s posture.

Later, another player showed me a difference aspect of this idea. He told me that when he was last to act in a hand on the river, he always took advantage of the situation to send a message to the other players at the table. First, he made his decision on the hand in play. Once he knew what his play would be, he took advantage of being last to act (“being on stage” he called it). He would send a message to everyone at the table. For instance, he was going to fold what he was sure was a second-best hand. But before he folded he talked about the hand in such a way that he appeared to be struggling with the decision to fold. In this way he was trying to discourage players from bluffing him, by making it appear that he was having a hard time laying down a hand.

Here is what he told me: “You almost never are putting on the act for the player who is in the hand with you, they are already paying attention. You are talking or acting to get the other players to pay attention and pick up the read you are trying to give. You gotta talk just enough to get them interested but not too much that they pick up on the fact that you are delivering a message.”

In other words, you are trying to get the players to “just notice” your poker play — just enough to get the message but not enough to notice that the message comes gift-wrapped with a bow and is probably ticking like a well-planted time bomb. The just-noticeable difference works many ways, but the more subtle the “just noticeable” is, the more you’ll benefit from the information given or received.

Getting Around Las Vegas During the WSOP

Posted by admin | News | Sunday 19 April 2009 1:01 am

Welcome to Las Vegas. Those casinos are a lot farther away from each other than you thought. What’s the best way to get around?

Your first decision is whether or not you are going to rent a car at the airport. There are a whole bunch of things you need to consider to make that decision. If you are going to play the World Series of Poker at the Rio but not stay at the Rio, you will be needing transportation every time you go to the Series. Cabs are everywhere. Parking is free at all casinos and hotels. All hotels and casinos have valet parking. The WSOP has special valet parking for the Series at the rear of the Rio by the tournament area. It will be over 100 degrees every day and cabs drop you at the
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front door, right next to the valet. Some of the outlying casinos (Green Valley, Red Rock, Binion’s) are a long cab ride away. Cabbies tend to always be sober; do you?

If you decide not to rent a car, then you can take a cab to your strip hotel for about $12-$15 to the south end casinos. Getting to the north strip will run you around $15-$20 and a trip downtown will be approximately $20-$22. The airport shuttles are much cheaper ($8 -$10) but they are slower and can take up to an hour to get you to your hotel if you are at the end of the shuttle run. Groups of more than two will do better in a cab.

Should you decide to get that rental car? We can almost guarantee that even with a designated driver, a group of you will use cabs some of the time because a group that arrives in Vegas together never stays together the entire time. The early tournament bustouts are going to head off to another tournament at a different casino, or perhaps they will take in some evening entertainment of the sequined variety. What they won’t do is hang on the rail to watch you nurse that short stack.

The World Series is played in the convention area of the Rio All-Suite Hotel & Casino. The Rio is on Flamingo Road, about three-quarters of a mile off the Las Vegas Strip. Remember it will be 100 degrees or more every day, so walking is not a really good option. There is a shuttle directly to the Rio from Harrah’s Las Vegas Hotel & Casino on the east side of the Strip. It runs every half an hour but can get very full right around tournament time.

If you are staying at a hotel on the Strip and want to go more than one casino north or south, you will not want to walk during the middle of the day. You can take “The Deuce” – the double-decker bus that runs the entire length of the Las Vegas Strip. It cost $3 per ride and it goes from way south of the last strip casino all the way to downtown on the north end. There are bus stops about every quarter of a mile, and during peaks hours The Deuce runs every eight minutes and it is very reliable.

Finally, there is the Las Vegas Monorail that runs behind the main casinos on the east side of the Strip. You can go from the MGM Grand on the south end all the way to the Sahara Hotel & Casino up north. The Deuce is cheaper for short runs, but a monorail all-day or three-day pass can save you some cash if you are going to be hitting a lot of Strip casinos during your stay. Grab a map and enjoy.